Drops in family income are set to drive up poverty by about 600,000 children and 800,000 working-age adults, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) report says.
The Universal Credit will lift around 450,000 children and 600,000 working-age adults out of relative poverty - defined as living in a household on less than 60% of average income - by 2020/21.
But the IFS said the positive impact of the new system - to be introduced in 2013 - will be outweighed by other tax and benefit changes.
Its forecasts show 3.3 million children, a quarter of the UK's child population, will be in relative poverty by the end of the decade, compared with 2.5 million children (19.2%) now.
This would mean the Government missing by a wide margin the legally-binding targets in the Child Poverty Act, which stated no more than 5% of children should be in absolute poverty and 10% in relative poverty by the end of the decade.
James Browne, one of the authors of the report, said: "Even if there were an immense increase in the resources made available, it is hard to see how child poverty could fall by enough to hit this supposedly legally-binding target in just nine years."
A Government spokesman said the IFS had not fully considered the behavioural changes expected to result from welfare changes and reforms to the education system.
He said the reforms would encourage people into work - many for the first time.
"Over the last decade billions of pounds have been moved around the tax and benefit system in an attempt to address poverty," he said.
"This has had the perverse effect of trapping thousands of families on benefits while income inequality increased to its highest ever level.
"It is clear that sticking with the status quo which has had no meaningful long-term effect on poverty projections is not an option."
But children's groups described the report as "devastating".
Alison Garnham, chief executive of Child Poverty Action Group, said: "The Government must accept that you cannot fight poverty or improve life chances by making the poor poorer."
Bob Reitemeier, chief executive of the Children's Society, said: "We are particularly concerned that the proposed cap on benefits will cut support to more than 200,000 children and potentially make 82,000 children homeless."
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